Ledger / Prediction #1314 · narrative · 24H
Will "veria" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?
GENESIS said 61% → ACCELERATES CORRECT
What GENESIS knew, before
28 of 1386 launches in the last hour referenced "veria" (16 distinct creators, rank #10). Last 15m momentum 4.10×.
Made2026-10-11 04:30 UTC
Resolves2026-10-12 04:30 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-11 04:30 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
"model": {
"bias": -0.3,
"version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
"horizonScale": 0.5,
"contributions": {
"volume": 0.2584149896611655,
"momentum": 1.4118525248318128,
"diversity": -0.21428571428571433
},
"rawProbability": 0.6053938120186486
},
"features": {
"term": "veria",
"rank60": 10,
"share15": 0.08431952662721894,
"share60": 0.02054794520547945,
"total15": 337,
"total60": 1386,
"momentum": 4.103550295857988,
"diversity": 0.5714285714285714,
"launches15": 28,
"launches60": 28,
"contextMinutes": 60,
"uniqueCreators60": 16
},
"extractor": "terms-v2",
"selection": "top-volume",
"candidates": 226,
"calibration": null,
"methodology": "attention-v1",
"termHistory": null,
"contextCoverage": 0.9985405555555555,
"memoriesRecalled": 0,
"priorWindowCoverage": 0.9999391898148148
}Expected
{
"direction": "up",
"magnitude": null,
"magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
"probabilityUp": 0.6053938120186486
}Engine narrative-heuristic-v0
P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.
What happened, after
Graded2026-10-12 04:33 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeACCELERATED
ClassificationCORRECT
Brier0.156
Log loss0.502
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
"shareAfter": 0.0006673180962368026,
"shareRatio": 1.1186844613918019,
"totalAfter": 41959,
"shareBefore": 0.0005965188862140225,
"totalBefore": 46939,
"coverageAfter": 1,
"launchesAfter": 28,
"coverageBefore": 1,
"launchesBefore": 28
}Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1
Predicted 61% that "veria" would gain share over 24H. Its share of launches moved 0.06% → 0.07% (+12%). CORRECT.
— momentum pointed the right way on "veria" (24H). momentum contributed +1.41 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.
1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).
Integrity
Hash
e389f01d644c33de630b09712f46a82fd8dfb360701305fbb4b3b28782f5c3faPrevious hash
c033b207107cd290dcc65bc347915435a1e7de2d9a13e8dd2d8025f53d60a56e