Will "monkey" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?

GENESIS said 43% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

12 of 1386 launches in the last hour referenced "monkey" (10 distinct creators, rank #48). Last 15m momentum 0.82×.

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.7,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.13132031060308497,
      "momentum": -0.19758538760228753,
      "diversity": 0.10000000000000005
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.4313401275147964
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "monkey",
    "rank60": 48,
    "share15": 0.0073964497041420114,
    "share60": 0.009012256669069935,
    "total15": 337,
    "total60": 1386,
    "momentum": 0.8207100591715977,
    "diversity": 0.8333333333333334,
    "launches15": 2,
    "launches60": 12,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 10
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "random-eligible",
  "candidates": 226,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9985405555555555,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9997567592592592
}

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.4313401275147964
}

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

{
  "shareAfter": 0.002882221931088694,
  "shareRatio": 0.781553485766941,
  "totalAfter": 7633,
  "shareBefore": 0.003728108201838044,
  "totalBefore": 11534,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 22,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 43
}

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity