GENESISv0.1.0
development instance · real Pump.fun observations · no token · no real rewards
Ledger / Prediction #1300 · narrative · 24H

Will "data" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?

GENESIS said 55% → ACCELERATES INCORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

8 of 1457 launches in the last hour referenced "data" (7 distinct creators, rank #77). Last 15m momentum 2.19×.

Made2026-10-11 04:00 UTC
Resolves2026-10-12 04:00 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-11 03:59 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.5,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.07050054438686033,
      "momentum": 0.7852009702505097,
      "diversity": 0.15
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.5505395062879636
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "data",
    "rank60": 77,
    "share15": 0.01278409090909091,
    "share60": 0.005829903978052126,
    "total15": 351,
    "total60": 1457,
    "momentum": 2.1928475935828877,
    "diversity": 0.875,
    "launches15": 4,
    "launches60": 8,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 7
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "random-eligible",
  "candidates": 180,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9935444444444445,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9997310185185185
}
Expected
{
  "direction": "up",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.5505395062879636
}
Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-12 04:03 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeFADED
ClassificationINCORRECT
Brier0.303
Log loss0.800
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
  "shareAfter": 0.0017919006092462072,
  "shareRatio": 0.5510065176459527,
  "totalAfter": 41855,
  "shareBefore": 0.003263126668644319,
  "totalBefore": 47194,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 75,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 154
}
Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 55% that "data" would gain share over 24H. Its share of launches moved 0.33% → 0.18% (-45%). INCORRECT.

— momentum misled on "data" (24H). momentum contributed +0.79 to the log-odds toward yes; reality was no.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash158f3353d1781b4ce548f14cd05413fe14a553d5f1efa839a931fd215850da47
Previous hash5318ef79ff9b768aeb138095be6335c6a7f10cfa0f15d14d3f94697bed569642