Ledger / Prediction #1298 · narrative · 24H
Will "pepe" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?
GENESIS said 40% → FADES INCORRECT
What GENESIS knew, before
36 of 1457 launches in the last hour referenced "pepe" (9 distinct creators, rank #7). Last 15m momentum 1.08×.
Made2026-10-11 04:00 UTC
Resolves2026-10-12 04:00 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-11 03:59 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
"model": {
"bias": -0.3,
"version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
"horizonScale": 0.5,
"contributions": {
"volume": 0.2961121539033014,
"momentum": 0.07516927498855555,
"diversity": -0.6
},
"rawProbability": 0.3978673083259111
},
"features": {
"term": "pepe",
"rank60": 7,
"share15": 0.026988636363636364,
"share60": 0.025034293552812073,
"total15": 351,
"total60": 1457,
"momentum": 1.078066625155666,
"diversity": 0.25,
"launches15": 9,
"launches60": 36,
"contextMinutes": 60,
"uniqueCreators60": 9
},
"extractor": "terms-v2",
"selection": "top-volume",
"candidates": 180,
"calibration": null,
"methodology": "attention-v1",
"termHistory": null,
"contextCoverage": 0.9935444444444445,
"memoriesRecalled": 0,
"priorWindowCoverage": 0.9997310185185185
}Expected
{
"direction": "down",
"magnitude": null,
"magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
"probabilityUp": 0.3978673083259111
}Engine narrative-heuristic-v0
P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.
What happened, after
Graded2026-10-12 04:03 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeACCELERATED
ClassificationINCORRECT
Brier0.363
Log loss0.922
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
"shareAfter": 0.015338669215147533,
"shareRatio": 2.824385873631156,
"totalAfter": 41855,
"shareBefore": 0.005424418358265882,
"totalBefore": 47194,
"coverageAfter": 1,
"launchesAfter": 642,
"coverageBefore": 1,
"launchesBefore": 256
}Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1
Predicted 40% that "pepe" would gain share over 24H. Its share of launches moved 0.54% → 1.53% (+183%). INCORRECT.
— diversity misled on "pepe" (24H). diversity contributed -0.60 to the log-odds toward no; reality was yes.
1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).
Integrity
Hash
329db700774fa681c37b5666b33366a1a1c2071be6f89f530793c3aa94547447Previous hash
cbd46ce74f598183d478ecad352d126dc8b4646a1bc6ef8a733777d15cf2bfb9