Ledger / Prediction #1297 · narrative · 24H

Will "inu" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?

GENESIS said 40% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

46 of 1457 launches in the last hour referenced "inu" (35 distinct creators, rank #6). Last 15m momentum 0.58×.

Made2026-10-11 04:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-12 04:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-11 03:59 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.5,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.3328805226082492,
      "momentum": -0.5464603987212129,
      "diversity": 0.013043478260869623
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.40124790391944143
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "inu",
    "rank60": 6,
    "share15": 0.018465909090909092,
    "share60": 0.03189300411522634,
    "total15": 351,
    "total60": 1457,
    "momentum": 0.5789956011730205,
    "diversity": 0.7608695652173914,
    "launches15": 6,
    "launches60": 46,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 35
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 180,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9935444444444445,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9997310185185185
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.40124790391944143
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-12 04:03 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.161

Log loss0.513

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.016652729661928083,
  "shareRatio": 0.6589615229953533,
  "totalAfter": 41855,
  "shareBefore": 0.025278637114887485,
  "totalBefore": 47194,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 697,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 1193
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 40% that "inu" would gain share over 24H. Its share of launches moved 2.53% → 1.67% (-34%). CORRECT.

— momentum pointed the right way on "inu" (24H). momentum contributed -0.55 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hashcbd46ce74f598183d478ecad352d126dc8b4646a1bc6ef8a733777d15cf2bfb9

Previous hash81e4a531ee9fa2f7158c8d516aad549c3afea1cb214b7b574469c61ae59979e0