Ledger / Prediction #1296 · narrative · 6H

Will "mascot" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?

GENESIS said 60% → ACCELERATES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

7 of 1457 launches in the last hour referenced "mascot" (7 distinct creators, rank #106). Last 15m momentum 1.93×.

Made2026-10-11 04:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-11 10:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-11 03:59 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.7,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.050470835493181924,
      "momentum": 0.6590496849236096,
      "diversity": 0.3
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.6002877869365436
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "mascot",
    "rank60": 106,
    "share15": 0.009943181818181818,
    "share60": 0.0051440329218107,
    "total15": 351,
    "total60": 1457,
    "momentum": 1.9329545454545454,
    "diversity": 1,
    "launches15": 3,
    "launches60": 7,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 7
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "random-eligible",
  "candidates": 180,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9935444444444445,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.998924074074074
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "up",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.6002877869365436
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-11 10:03 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeACCELERATED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.160

Log loss0.510

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.005857087075361187,
  "shareRatio": 1.7597509013438217,
  "totalAfter": 7683,
  "shareBefore": 0.0033236393851267137,
  "totalBefore": 12035,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 45,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 40
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 60% that "mascot" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 0.33% → 0.59% (+76%). CORRECT.

— momentum pointed the right way on "mascot" (6H). momentum contributed +0.66 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash81e4a531ee9fa2f7158c8d516aad549c3afea1cb214b7b574469c61ae59979e0

Previous hash65c08b9a69fec54c2acadcef0ce761f23049f0b3354e0a99841aa20107a13863