Ledger / Prediction #1289 · narrative · 1H

Will "money" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 15% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

66 of 1457 launches in the last hour referenced "money" (9 distinct creators, rank #1). Last 15m momentum 0.34×.

Made2026-10-11 04:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-11 05:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-11 03:59 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.3870325244388488,
      "momentum": -1.0712641184528768,
      "diversity": -0.7363636363636363
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.15179451011231432
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "money",
    "rank60": 1,
    "share15": 0.015625,
    "share60": 0.04561042524005487,
    "total15": 351,
    "total60": 1457,
    "momentum": 0.3425751879699248,
    "diversity": 0.13636363636363635,
    "launches15": 5,
    "launches60": 66,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 9
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 180,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9935444444444445,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9935444444444445
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.15179451011231432
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-11 05:03 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.023

Log loss0.165

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.007593014426727411,
  "shareRatio": 0.17670313872693874,
  "totalAfter": 1317,
  "shareBefore": 0.04477611940298507,
  "totalBefore": 1474,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 10,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 66
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 15% that "money" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 4.48% → 0.76% (-83%). CORRECT.

— momentum pointed the right way on "money" (1H). momentum contributed -1.07 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hashe28127443a5e5ece91da2a796d373042155c66607e2ddb2090a644491dc08a11

Previous hash4c4d0084d8439602a87aeb84b5fa774c09157a564f877eab84cbf70c72931bec