GENESISv0.1.0
development instance · real Pump.fun observations · no token · no real rewards
Ledger / Prediction #1283 · narrative · 24H

Will "burn" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?

GENESIS said 12% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

41 of 1762 launches in the last hour referenced "burn" (3 distinct creators, rank #12). Last 15m momentum 0.06×.

Made2026-10-11 03:30 UTC
Resolves2026-10-12 03:30 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-11 03:29 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.5,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.3156201231405311,
      "momentum": -2.8076996009968247,
      "diversity": -0.8121951219512196
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.12432049434082987
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "burn",
    "rank60": 12,
    "share15": 0.0014204545454545455,
    "share60": 0.023539421440726037,
    "total15": 351,
    "total60": 1762,
    "momentum": 0.06034364731653888,
    "diversity": 0.07317073170731707,
    "launches15": 0,
    "launches60": 41,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 3
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 214,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9971511111111111,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9998812962962963
}
Expected
{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.12432049434082987
}
Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-12 03:33 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeFADED
ClassificationCORRECT
Brier0.015
Log loss0.133
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
  "shareAfter": 0.0016712825900105051,
  "shareRatio": 0.5810949895276026,
  "totalAfter": 41884,
  "shareBefore": 0.002886094082453812,
  "totalBefore": 47469,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 70,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 137
}
Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 12% that "burn" would gain share over 24H. Its share of launches moved 0.29% → 0.17% (-42%). CORRECT.

— momentum pointed the right way on "burn" (24H). momentum contributed -2.81 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hashfbf90dac18c0672836dfbc16447b8a3bf324c47b50553b18a9cca7316d3e0c32
Previous hash458434e38019d5f0d020a767395d0c8cefd6a2594aa7ceb30cbafff1bf87707d