Ledger / Prediction #1281 · narrative · 24H

Will "enough" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?

GENESIS said 11% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

58 of 1762 launches in the last hour referenced "enough" (4 distinct creators, rank #8). Last 15m momentum 0.04×.

Made2026-10-11 03:30 UTC

Resolves2026-10-12 03:30 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-11 03:29 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.5,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.3676507647168478,
      "momentum": -3.151032927997983,
      "diversity": -0.8172413793103448
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.10906652236939396
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "enough",
    "rank60": 8,
    "share15": 0.0014204545454545455,
    "share60": 0.03318207600680658,
    "total15": 351,
    "total60": 1762,
    "momentum": 0.04280788655788656,
    "diversity": 0.06896551724137931,
    "launches15": 0,
    "launches60": 58,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 4
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 214,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9971511111111111,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9998812962962963
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.10906652236939396
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-12 03:33 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.012

Log loss0.116

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.00038200744914525833,
  "shareRatio": 0.2089400146583856,
  "totalAfter": 41884,
  "shareBefore": 0.001874907834586783,
  "totalBefore": 47469,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 16,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 89
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 11% that "enough" would gain share over 24H. Its share of launches moved 0.19% → 0.04% (-80%). CORRECT.

— momentum pointed the right way on "enough" (24H). momentum contributed -3.15 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hashfacab75ac7ddc20c5506e62d599230a872f907e30ce0b1f8fb28a0254105aa7f

Previous hash86b46e7d728290ec5f88f43e70bc77e1d1425f8275ba6c7dab6c3714e580941f