Will "launchpad" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?

GENESIS said 33% → FADES PARTIAL

What GENESIS knew, before

38 of 1762 launches in the last hour referenced "launchpad" (18 distinct creators, rank #14). Last 15m momentum 0.59×.

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.7,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.3042222370938428,
      "momentum": -0.5354398377176912,
      "diversity": -0.3315789473684211
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.33315326810083595
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "launchpad",
    "rank60": 14,
    "share15": 0.01278409090909091,
    "share60": 0.021837776517300057,
    "total15": 351,
    "total60": 1762,
    "momentum": 0.5854117473435656,
    "diversity": 0.47368421052631576,
    "launches15": 4,
    "launches60": 38,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 18
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 214,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9971511111111111,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9995251851851852
}

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.33315326810083595
}

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

{
  "shareAfter": 0.009606763161265531,
  "shareRatio": 0.9361046437456145,
  "totalAfter": 7807,
  "shareBefore": 0.01029021625532599,
  "totalBefore": 12439,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 75,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 128
}

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity