Will "fat" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 5% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

49 of 1762 launches in the last hour referenced "fat" (5 distinct creators, rank #10). Last 15m momentum 0.05×.

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.34235735785147897,
      "momentum": -2.9839788433348167,
      "diversity": -0.7775510204081633
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.05
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "fat",
    "rank60": 10,
    "share15": 0.0014204545454545455,
    "share60": 0.028077141236528644,
    "total15": 351,
    "total60": 1762,
    "momentum": 0.05059113865932048,
    "diversity": 0.10204081632653061,
    "launches15": 0,
    "launches60": 49,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 5
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 214,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9971511111111111,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9971511111111111
}

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.05
}

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

{
  "shareAfter": 0.0021598272138228943,
  "shareRatio": 0.08988445607150643,
  "totalAfter": 1389,
  "shareBefore": 0.027746319365798414,
  "totalBefore": 1766,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 3,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 49
}

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity