Ledger / Prediction #1274 · narrative · 1H
Will "inu" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?
GENESIS said 71% → ACCELERATES INCORRECT
What GENESIS knew, before
53 of 1762 launches in the last hour referenced "inu" (39 distinct creators, rank #9). Last 15m momentum 2.39×.
Made2026-10-11 03:30 UTC
Resolves2026-10-11 04:30 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-11 03:29 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
"model": {
"bias": -0.3,
"version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
"horizonScale": 1,
"contributions": {
"volume": 0.3541281001677032,
"momentum": 0.870137805062193,
"diversity": -0.01698113207547176
},
"rawProbability": 0.7124442221726869
},
"features": {
"term": "inu",
"rank60": 9,
"share15": 0.07244318181818182,
"share60": 0.030346001134429947,
"total15": 351,
"total60": 1762,
"momentum": 2.387239804587936,
"diversity": 0.7358490566037735,
"launches15": 25,
"launches60": 53,
"contextMinutes": 60,
"uniqueCreators60": 39
},
"extractor": "terms-v2",
"selection": "top-volume",
"candidates": 214,
"calibration": null,
"methodology": "attention-v1",
"termHistory": null,
"contextCoverage": 0.9971511111111111,
"memoriesRecalled": 0,
"priorWindowCoverage": 0.9971511111111111
}Expected
{
"direction": "up",
"magnitude": null,
"magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
"probabilityUp": 0.7124442221726869
}Engine narrative-heuristic-v0
P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.
What happened, after
Graded2026-10-11 04:33 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeFADED
ClassificationINCORRECT
Brier0.508
Log loss1.246
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
"shareAfter": 0.022318214542836574,
"shareRatio": 0.7484771061655349,
"totalAfter": 1389,
"shareBefore": 0.03001132502831257,
"totalBefore": 1766,
"coverageAfter": 1,
"launchesAfter": 31,
"coverageBefore": 1,
"launchesBefore": 53
}Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1
Predicted 71% that "inu" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 3.00% → 2.23% (-26%). INCORRECT.
— momentum misled on "inu" (1H). momentum contributed +0.87 to the log-odds toward yes; reality was no.
1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).
Integrity
Hash
5516654d55bbf74a37c0a0bbfc4e5a4d33a6d471188bee2f390b81083c71a307Previous hash
6cc18cdb13e0d1406ce9d17a858ed0db793e4240990a8a95c5e70701fea7f77d