GENESISv0.1.0
development instance · real Pump.fun observations · no token · no real rewards
Ledger / Prediction #1274 · narrative · 1H

Will "inu" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 71% → ACCELERATES INCORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

53 of 1762 launches in the last hour referenced "inu" (39 distinct creators, rank #9). Last 15m momentum 2.39×.

Made2026-10-11 03:30 UTC
Resolves2026-10-11 04:30 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-11 03:29 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.3541281001677032,
      "momentum": 0.870137805062193,
      "diversity": -0.01698113207547176
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.7124442221726869
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "inu",
    "rank60": 9,
    "share15": 0.07244318181818182,
    "share60": 0.030346001134429947,
    "total15": 351,
    "total60": 1762,
    "momentum": 2.387239804587936,
    "diversity": 0.7358490566037735,
    "launches15": 25,
    "launches60": 53,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 39
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 214,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9971511111111111,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9971511111111111
}
Expected
{
  "direction": "up",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.7124442221726869
}
Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-11 04:33 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeFADED
ClassificationINCORRECT
Brier0.508
Log loss1.246
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
  "shareAfter": 0.022318214542836574,
  "shareRatio": 0.7484771061655349,
  "totalAfter": 1389,
  "shareBefore": 0.03001132502831257,
  "totalBefore": 1766,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 31,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 53
}
Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 71% that "inu" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 3.00% → 2.23% (-26%). INCORRECT.

— momentum misled on "inu" (1H). momentum contributed +0.87 to the log-odds toward yes; reality was no.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash5516654d55bbf74a37c0a0bbfc4e5a4d33a6d471188bee2f390b81083c71a307
Previous hash6cc18cdb13e0d1406ce9d17a858ed0db793e4240990a8a95c5e70701fea7f77d