Will "laundering" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?
GENESIS said 30% → FADES CORRECT
What GENESIS knew, before
7 of 1992 launches in the last hour referenced "laundering" (5 distinct creators, rank #176). Last 15m momentum 0.32×.
{
"model": {
"bias": -0.3,
"version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
"horizonScale": 0.5,
"contributions": {
"volume": 0.050470835493181924,
"momentum": -1.148524800811553,
"diversity": -0.04285714285714284
},
"rawProbability": 0.2951595195144199
},
"features": {
"term": "laundering",
"rank60": 176,
"share15": 0.0011933174224343676,
"share60": 0.003763171098845961,
"total15": 418,
"total60": 1992,
"momentum": 0.31710421638822595,
"diversity": 0.7142857142857143,
"launches15": 0,
"launches60": 7,
"contextMinutes": 60,
"uniqueCreators60": 5
},
"extractor": "terms-v2",
"selection": "random-eligible",
"candidates": 241,
"calibration": null,
"methodology": "attention-v1",
"termHistory": null,
"contextCoverage": 0.9924275,
"memoriesRecalled": 0,
"priorWindowCoverage": 0.9996844791666667
}{
"direction": "down",
"magnitude": null,
"magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
"probabilityUp": 0.2951595195144199
}P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.
What happened, after
{
"shareAfter": 0.00007160246312473149,
"shareRatio": 0.5341623109541198,
"totalAfter": 41898,
"shareBefore": 0.00014596104925142833,
"totalBefore": 47958,
"coverageAfter": 1,
"launchesAfter": 3,
"coverageBefore": 1,
"launchesBefore": 7
}Predicted 30% that "laundering" would gain share over 24H. Its share of launches moved 0.01% → 0.01% (-51%). CORRECT.
— momentum pointed the right way on "laundering" (24H). momentum contributed -1.15 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.
1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).
Integrity
57a0ba7f7f1f1452d33c2f5bdf2cf280278b05209420de2b7711e807cdf2605357e01090145ec7d3a018990df21c5f17ab4d45978f8c8e88aa0164f46fe8a246