Ledger / Prediction #1266 · narrative · 24H

Will "cat" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?

GENESIS said 44% → FADES PARTIAL

What GENESIS knew, before

114 of 1992 launches in the last hour referenced "cat" (60 distinct creators, rank #4). Last 15m momentum 0.93×.

Made2026-10-11 03:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-12 03:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-11 02:59 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.5,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.46901408039405923,
      "momentum": -0.06753411349326291,
      "diversity": -0.26842105263157895
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.44189605470207677
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "cat",
    "rank60": 4,
    "share15": 0.05369928400954654,
    "share60": 0.057451078775715,
    "total15": 418,
    "total60": 1992,
    "momentum": 0.934695834332107,
    "diversity": 0.5263157894736842,
    "launches15": 22,
    "launches60": 114,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 60
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 241,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9924275,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9996844791666667
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.44189605470207677
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-12 03:03 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationPARTIAL

Brier0.195

Log loss0.583

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.04009737934984964,
  "shareRatio": 0.9454689782239213,
  "totalAfter": 41898,
  "shareBefore": 0.042412110596772176,
  "totalBefore": 47958,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 1680,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 2034
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 44% that "cat" would gain share over 24H. Its share of launches moved 4.24% → 4.01% (-5%). PARTIAL.

— "cat" stayed roughly flat over 24H. Share changed by less than 10%; direction calls this close carry little information.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash5524b4c88f15650a6a7deb07b57f07a6f541f77177cd627b1f08cf253b8df34f

Previous hash35d71198acbe53d154bccaed1c4e4412330b643ff296339564992458b4fd1a28