Ledger / Prediction #1263 · narrative · 6H

Will "fat" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?

GENESIS said 5% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

58 of 1992 launches in the last hour referenced "fat" (4 distinct creators, rank #11). Last 15m momentum 0.04×.

Made2026-10-11 03:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-11 09:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-11 02:59 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.7,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.3676507647168478,
      "momentum": -3.202648534507099,
      "diversity": -0.8172413793103448
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.05434283088802092
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "fat",
    "rank60": 11,
    "share15": 0.0011933174224343676,
    "share60": 0.029352734570998493,
    "total15": 418,
    "total60": 1992,
    "momentum": 0.04065438671643923,
    "diversity": 0.06896551724137931,
    "launches15": 0,
    "launches60": 58,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 4
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 241,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9924275,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9987379166666667
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.05434283088802092
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-11 09:03 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.003

Log loss0.056

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.0016333710265108682,
  "shareRatio": 0.3004106740599549,
  "totalAfter": 7959,
  "shareBefore": 0.005607039950159645,
  "totalBefore": 12841,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 13,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 72
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 5% that "fat" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 0.56% → 0.16% (-71%). CORRECT.

— momentum pointed the right way on "fat" (6H). momentum contributed -3.20 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash7a60b5fdf68edfb7d52726e3aa52683b5772a84fd77b83996430cbf6c45f53db

Previous hash79dbcdc94cce16ddb8f571cb480a7579effefff2be8fd86d5f983b460fe41199