Ledger / Prediction #126 · narrative · 6H

Will "claude" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?

GENESIS said 50% → ACCELERATES INCORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

47 of 1571 launches in the last hour referenced "claude" (20 distinct creators, rank #6). Last 15m momentum 1.65×.

Made2026-10-09 12:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-09 18:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-09 11:59 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.7,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.3361064533913937,
      "momentum": 0.5013191069784257,
      "diversity": -0.3893617021276596
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.5034111222695887
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "claude",
    "rank60": 6,
    "share15": 0.04988399071925754,
    "share60": 0.030216284987277353,
    "total15": 430,
    "total60": 1571,
    "momentum": 1.6508975454878496,
    "diversity": 0.425531914893617,
    "launches15": 21,
    "launches60": 47,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 20
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 190,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9943713888888889,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9990618981481482
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "up",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.5034111222695887
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-09 18:03 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationINCORRECT

Brier0.253

Log loss0.700

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.0035291522682155724,
  "shareRatio": 0.48675722650138176,
  "totalAfter": 13601,
  "shareBefore": 0.007263619286161553,
  "totalBefore": 7985,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 48,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 58
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 50% that "claude" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 0.73% → 0.35% (-51%). INCORRECT.

— momentum misled on "claude" (6H). momentum contributed +0.50 to the log-odds toward yes; reality was no.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash2ace37cda7a229a64913619a57d67734c3dab54673fe8df53185234f16ae0773

Previous hash8a4652f945bebb7ac2bcdf806ddbb302055d8c29ba46ccd490a92e32c508ee39