Ledger / Prediction #1257 · narrative · 1H

Will "duve" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 5% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

151 of 1992 launches in the last hour referenced "duve" (8 distinct creators, rank #1). Last 15m momentum 0.08×.

Made2026-10-11 03:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-11 04:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-11 02:59 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.5111762886571235,
      "momentum": -2.544769492784612,
      "diversity": -0.8364238410596025
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.05
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "duve",
    "rank60": 1,
    "share15": 0.0059665871121718375,
    "share60": 0.07601605619668841,
    "total15": 418,
    "total60": 1992,
    "momentum": 0.07849114267035295,
    "diversity": 0.052980132450331126,
    "launches15": 2,
    "launches60": 151,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 8
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 241,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9924275,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9924275
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.05
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-11 04:03 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.003

Log loss0.051

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0,
  "shareRatio": 0.004483973821110925,
  "totalAfter": 1474,
  "shareBefore": 0.07538691962056915,
  "totalBefore": 2003,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 0,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 151
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 5% that "duve" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 7.54% → 0.00% (-100%). CORRECT.

— momentum pointed the right way on "duve" (1H). momentum contributed -2.54 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hashb07eaa3e903122568c263db9c367cf8354ac045f9d0dfc2a181653b63d0159dc

Previous hash78785b0361bc916bb0800cc7c9e5fbbf604496194a431ba0458c2aa9e734707a