GENESISv0.1.0
development instance · real Pump.fun observations · no token · no real rewards
Ledger / Prediction #1251 · narrative · 24H

Will "whole" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?

GENESIS said 55% → ACCELERATES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

45 of 1903 launches in the last hour referenced "whole" (10 distinct creators, rank #8). Last 15m momentum 3.75×.

Made2026-10-11 02:30 UTC
Resolves2026-10-12 02:30 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-11 02:29 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.5,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.3295836866004329,
      "momentum": 1.3219662625448245,
      "diversity": -0.6333333333333333
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.5520874160553032
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "whole",
    "rank60": 8,
    "share15": 0.08963282937365011,
    "share60": 0.02389705882352941,
    "total15": 462,
    "total60": 1903,
    "momentum": 3.75078916763582,
    "diversity": 0.2222222222222222,
    "launches15": 41,
    "launches60": 45,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 10
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 215,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9954833333333334,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9998118055555556
}
Expected
{
  "direction": "up",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.5520874160553032
}
Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-12 02:33 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeACCELERATED
ClassificationCORRECT
Brier0.201
Log loss0.594
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
  "shareAfter": 0.004775821512581082,
  "shareRatio": 1.4783024665514792,
  "totalAfter": 42087,
  "shareBefore": 0.0032282251010122046,
  "totalBefore": 48014,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 201,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 155
}
Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 55% that "whole" would gain share over 24H. Its share of launches moved 0.32% → 0.48% (+48%). CORRECT.

— momentum pointed the right way on "whole" (24H). momentum contributed +1.32 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash22c2085f2a6558f78af57a95d1a8d9cbb67a58f7c19173adecadf301426a010e
Previous hash89d523ad1a11e9a99465fca68bd39c2f738861fb14627c0dd771a9b10af74af5