Ledger / Prediction #1249 · narrative · 24H
Will "money" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?
GENESIS said 41% → FADES PARTIAL
What GENESIS knew, before
109 of 1903 launches in the last hour referenced "money" (12 distinct creators, rank #3). Last 15m momentum 1.22×.
Made2026-10-11 02:30 UTC
Resolves2026-10-12 02:30 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-11 02:29 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
"model": {
"bias": -0.3,
"version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
"horizonScale": 0.5,
"contributions": {
"volume": 0.4622864954692565,
"momentum": 0.19930070134421293,
"diversity": -0.7678899082568807
},
"rawProbability": 0.4126184347014961
},
"features": {
"term": "money",
"rank60": 3,
"share15": 0.07019438444924406,
"share60": 0.05751050420168067,
"total15": 462,
"total60": 1903,
"momentum": 1.2205489314279516,
"diversity": 0.11009174311926606,
"launches15": 32,
"launches60": 109,
"contextMinutes": 60,
"uniqueCreators60": 12
},
"extractor": "terms-v2",
"selection": "top-volume",
"candidates": 215,
"calibration": null,
"methodology": "attention-v1",
"termHistory": null,
"contextCoverage": 0.9954833333333334,
"memoriesRecalled": 0,
"priorWindowCoverage": 0.9998118055555556
}Expected
{
"direction": "down",
"magnitude": null,
"magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
"probabilityUp": 0.4126184347014961
}Engine narrative-heuristic-v0
P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.
What happened, after
Graded2026-10-12 02:33 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeFADED
ClassificationPARTIAL
Brier0.170
Log loss0.532
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
"shareAfter": 0.03283674293724903,
"shareRatio": 0.9296723626182755,
"totalAfter": 42087,
"shareBefore": 0.035323030782688385,
"totalBefore": 48014,
"coverageAfter": 1,
"launchesAfter": 1382,
"coverageBefore": 1,
"launchesBefore": 1696
}Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1
Predicted 41% that "money" would gain share over 24H. Its share of launches moved 3.53% → 3.28% (-7%). PARTIAL.
— "money" stayed roughly flat over 24H. Share changed by less than 10%; direction calls this close carry little information.
1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).
Integrity
Hash
eed121f9659222496909a4cd65f5a617e5a5557743ecefb72b7015697b9f7e4dPrevious hash
70e914c5a61c717343bc9ffab7129ec8e99d812b7635175b02838fa398e04fdd