GENESISv0.1.0
development instance · real Pump.fun observations · no token · no real rewards
Ledger / Prediction #1249 · narrative · 24H

Will "money" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?

GENESIS said 41% → FADES PARTIAL

What GENESIS knew, before

109 of 1903 launches in the last hour referenced "money" (12 distinct creators, rank #3). Last 15m momentum 1.22×.

Made2026-10-11 02:30 UTC
Resolves2026-10-12 02:30 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-11 02:29 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.5,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.4622864954692565,
      "momentum": 0.19930070134421293,
      "diversity": -0.7678899082568807
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.4126184347014961
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "money",
    "rank60": 3,
    "share15": 0.07019438444924406,
    "share60": 0.05751050420168067,
    "total15": 462,
    "total60": 1903,
    "momentum": 1.2205489314279516,
    "diversity": 0.11009174311926606,
    "launches15": 32,
    "launches60": 109,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 12
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 215,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9954833333333334,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9998118055555556
}
Expected
{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.4126184347014961
}
Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-12 02:33 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeFADED
ClassificationPARTIAL
Brier0.170
Log loss0.532
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
  "shareAfter": 0.03283674293724903,
  "shareRatio": 0.9296723626182755,
  "totalAfter": 42087,
  "shareBefore": 0.035323030782688385,
  "totalBefore": 48014,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 1382,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 1696
}
Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 41% that "money" would gain share over 24H. Its share of launches moved 3.53% → 3.28% (-7%). PARTIAL.

— "money" stayed roughly flat over 24H. Share changed by less than 10%; direction calls this close carry little information.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hasheed121f9659222496909a4cd65f5a617e5a5557743ecefb72b7015697b9f7e4d
Previous hash70e914c5a61c717343bc9ffab7129ec8e99d812b7635175b02838fa398e04fdd