Ledger / Prediction #1244 · narrative · 1H

Will "test" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 60% → ACCELERATES INCORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

12 of 1903 launches in the last hour referenced "test" (9 distinct creators, rank #102). Last 15m momentum 1.81×.

Made2026-10-11 02:30 UTC

Resolves2026-10-11 03:30 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-11 02:29 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.13132031060308497,
      "momentum": 0.5930046091952463,
      "diversity": 0
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.6045177005988267
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "test",
    "rank60": 102,
    "share15": 0.011879049676025918,
    "share60": 0.006565126050420168,
    "total15": 462,
    "total60": 1903,
    "momentum": 1.8094168466522678,
    "diversity": 0.75,
    "launches15": 5,
    "launches60": 12,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 9
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "random-eligible",
  "candidates": 215,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9954833333333334,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9954833333333334
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "up",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.6045177005988267
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-11 03:33 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationINCORRECT

Brier0.365

Log loss0.928

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.0028312570781426952,
  "shareRatio": 0.47760045274476515,
  "totalAfter": 1766,
  "shareBefore": 0.006259780907668232,
  "totalBefore": 1917,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 5,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 12
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 60% that "test" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 0.63% → 0.28% (-55%). INCORRECT.

— momentum misled on "test" (1H). momentum contributed +0.59 to the log-odds toward yes; reality was no.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash0116b54b250f23f711503c0fc9149a6b4ab03645befa1635b6bcf747cd2c7f3e

Previous hash9429dc5592b53194bd5dba66efc95edf8477bdb53bc92b02c7e4581e318082f1