Ledger / Prediction #1236 · narrative · 24H
Will "robot" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?
GENESIS said 43% → FADES INCORRECT
What GENESIS knew, before
6 of 1836 launches in the last hour referenced "robot" (5 distinct creators, rank #218). Last 15m momentum 0.91×.
Made2026-10-11 02:00 UTC
Resolves2026-10-12 02:00 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-11 01:59 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
"model": {
"bias": -0.3,
"version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
"horizonScale": 0.5,
"contributions": {
"volume": 0.027348233519093188,
"momentum": -0.09248538916565771,
"diversity": 0.10000000000000005
},
"rawProbability": 0.42982416780306865
},
"features": {
"term": "robot",
"rank60": 218,
"share15": 0.0032258064516129032,
"share60": 0.003538377789874796,
"total15": 464,
"total60": 1836,
"momentum": 0.9116625310173697,
"diversity": 0.8333333333333334,
"launches15": 1,
"launches60": 6,
"contextMinutes": 60,
"uniqueCreators60": 5
},
"extractor": "terms-v2",
"selection": "random-eligible",
"candidates": 235,
"calibration": null,
"methodology": "attention-v1",
"termHistory": null,
"contextCoverage": 0.9982586111111111,
"memoriesRecalled": 0,
"priorWindowCoverage": 0.9999274421296296
}Expected
{
"direction": "down",
"magnitude": null,
"magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
"probabilityUp": 0.42982416780306865
}Engine narrative-heuristic-v0
P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.
What happened, after
Graded2026-10-12 02:03 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeACCELERATED
ClassificationINCORRECT
Brier0.325
Log loss0.844
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
"shareAfter": 0.001972152259658794,
"shareRatio": 2.0105500760955066,
"totalAfter": 42086,
"shareBefore": 0.0009764204840552612,
"totalBefore": 48135,
"coverageAfter": 1,
"launchesAfter": 83,
"coverageBefore": 1,
"launchesBefore": 47
}Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1
Predicted 43% that "robot" would gain share over 24H. Its share of launches moved 0.10% → 0.20% (+102%). INCORRECT.
— momentum misled on "robot" (24H). momentum contributed -0.09 to the log-odds toward no; reality was yes.
1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).
Integrity
Hash
fa2ea0d2412d74a5020a2d33a0d9a220efab551c41127b692e2b1ab9328fc276Previous hash
1372c3e82a0908ccede4f38679194e6ad5f055037f9cc526d651c57e41ee7ec5