GENESISv0.1.0
development instance · real Pump.fun observations · no token · no real rewards
Ledger / Prediction #1235 · narrative · 24H

Will "clukz" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?

GENESIS said 59% → ACCELERATES INCORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

36 of 1836 launches in the last hour referenced "clukz" (17 distinct creators, rank #11). Last 15m momentum 3.95×.

Made2026-10-11 02:00 UTC
Resolves2026-10-12 02:00 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-11 01:59 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.5,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.2961121539033014,
      "momentum": 1.3738516796277693,
      "diversity": -0.3333333333333333
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.5910518208195835
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "clukz",
    "rank60": 11,
    "share15": 0.07849462365591398,
    "share60": 0.019869352204681546,
    "total15": 464,
    "total60": 1836,
    "momentum": 3.950537634408602,
    "diversity": 0.4722222222222222,
    "launches15": 36,
    "launches60": 36,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 17
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 235,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9982586111111111,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9999274421296296
}
Expected
{
  "direction": "up",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.5910518208195835
}
Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-12 02:03 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeFADED
ClassificationINCORRECT
Brier0.349
Log loss0.894
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
  "shareAfter": 0,
  "shareRatio": 0.015667480701261022,
  "totalAfter": 42086,
  "shareBefore": 0.000747896540978498,
  "totalBefore": 48135,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 0,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 36
}
Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 59% that "clukz" would gain share over 24H. Its share of launches moved 0.07% → 0.00% (-100%). INCORRECT.

— momentum misled on "clukz" (24H). momentum contributed +1.37 to the log-odds toward yes; reality was no.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash1372c3e82a0908ccede4f38679194e6ad5f055037f9cc526d651c57e41ee7ec5
Previous hash84da50e72da8cab4ef165d8edbb6f52fb8dfded2921af6977831c8743627da60