Ledger / Prediction #1232 · narrative · 6H

Will "project" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?

GENESIS said 21% → FADES INCORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

9 of 1836 launches in the last hour referenced "project" (7 distinct creators, rank #125). Last 15m momentum 0.21×.

Made2026-10-11 02:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-11 08:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-11 01:59 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.7,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.08816799973531786,
      "momentum": -1.5705872995386712,
      "diversity": 0.03333333333333335
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.2117581434748835
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "project",
    "rank60": 125,
    "share15": 0.001075268817204301,
    "share60": 0.005171475231355471,
    "total15": 464,
    "total60": 1836,
    "momentum": 0.2079230333899264,
    "diversity": 0.7777777777777778,
    "launches15": 0,
    "launches60": 9,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 7
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "random-eligible",
  "candidates": 235,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9982586111111111,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9997097685185186
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.2117581434748835
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-11 08:03 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeACCELERATED

ClassificationINCORRECT

Brier0.621

Log loss1.552

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.007626636311895276,
  "shareRatio": 3.1024255005419072,
  "totalAfter": 8785,
  "shareBefore": 0.002439565313816811,
  "totalBefore": 13527,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 67,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 33
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 21% that "project" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 0.24% → 0.76% (+213%). INCORRECT.

— momentum misled on "project" (6H). momentum contributed -1.57 to the log-odds toward no; reality was yes.

— Overconfident: 79% and wrong on "project". Confidence this high should be wrong about 1 time in 4 or less; track this bucket.

2 memory records written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash37cd137295f82375ed421754c55d61465c190bf83bb1b4dcd9cddfd52331400c

Previous hashb08b946374f8243f6e32944607074d14c8d3107810cf75bf79ee22b69bc02528