Ledger / Prediction #1225 · narrative · 1H

Will "cat" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 37% → FADES PARTIAL

What GENESIS knew, before

112 of 1836 launches in the last hour referenced "cat" (64 distinct creators, rank #2). Last 15m momentum 0.61×.

Made2026-10-11 02:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-11 03:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-11 01:59 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.4663591438291491,
      "momentum": -0.4869006610872371,
      "diversity": -0.21428571428571433
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.3693917183800456
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "cat",
    "rank60": 2,
    "share15": 0.03763440860215054,
    "share60": 0.06124115405552531,
    "total15": 464,
    "total60": 1836,
    "momentum": 0.6145280764635603,
    "diversity": 0.5714285714285714,
    "launches15": 17,
    "launches60": 112,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 64
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 235,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9982586111111111,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9982586111111111
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.3693917183800456
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-11 03:03 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationPARTIAL

Brier0.136

Log loss0.461

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.05741387918122816,
  "shareRatio": 0.9216566866267465,
  "totalAfter": 2003,
  "shareBefore": 0.06229685807150596,
  "totalBefore": 1846,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 115,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 115
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 37% that "cat" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 6.23% → 5.74% (-8%). PARTIAL.

— "cat" stayed roughly flat over 1H. Share changed by less than 10%; direction calls this close carry little information.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hashdc1b055e2f1941461abc642070bea05e5264ebd821654547819ef83a2c075db7

Previous hash3cc687d2f7ee73f790378df4355c3f4f9835edc04dd2204a4f12972e8df8549c