Ledger / Prediction #1224 · token · 6H

Will $DOPAMINI still have sustained attention 6H from now (still trading and at least 2× its launch market cap, or graduated)?

GENESIS said 11% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

Launched 19m ago. X link. Rides hot term "memecoin".

Made2026-10-11 01:30 UTC

Resolves2026-10-11 07:30 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-11 01:29 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginetoken-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodtoken-sustained-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "version": "token-heuristic-v0",
    "contributions": {
      "hotTerm": 0.3,
      "twitter": 0.4,
      "website": 0,
      "telegram": 0,
      "description": 0.2,
      "serialCreator": 0
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.11461549863791243
  },
  "features": {
    "mint": "42myJwkbtfFdnsb6MxJrfp8hfnWY8zEPZWGuKfGypump",
    "name": "Dopamini ",
    "symbol": "DOPAMINI ",
    "hotTerms": [
      "memecoin"
    ],
    "ageMinutes": 19,
    "hasTwitter": true,
    "hasWebsite": false,
    "hasTelegram": false,
    "descriptionLength": 229,
    "marketCapAtObservation": 2875.170381104433,
    "creatorLaunchesInContext": 1
  },
  "selection": "uniform-random among launches aged 10-30 min",
  "candidates": 634,
  "calibration": null
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "fades",
  "probabilitySustained": 0.11461549863791243
}

Engine token-heuristic-v0

P(a token launched 10-30 minutes ago still has sustained attention at the horizon). Uses only what GENESIS saw at launch: social links, description, creator behaviour, whether it rides a hot term. Hand-set weights around a ~5% prior.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-11 07:30 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.013

Log loss0.122

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "graduated": false,
  "replyCount": 0,
  "lastTradeAt": "2026-10-11T01:42:05.000Z",
  "marketCapUsd": 2788.4472485949764,
  "athMarketCapUsd": 2884.8625497482053,
  "tradedInFinal15m": false,
  "launchMarketCapUsd": 2875.170381104433,
  "marketCapThresholdUsd": 5750.340762208866
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 11% that $DOPAMINI would sustain attention for 6H. Outcome: FADED (market cap $2,788, no recent trades). CORRECT.

— The prior alone was right on $DOPAMINI (6H). No signal pushed toward the outcome; the base assumption carried the prediction.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash3cc687d2f7ee73f790378df4355c3f4f9835edc04dd2204a4f12972e8df8549c

Previous hash22f9939ceda0e968acdb4d7d301355d74d445b7e97ea0a484ac6fe04360160f1