Will "inux" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?

GENESIS said 27% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

5 of 2038 launches in the last hour referenced "inux" (3 distinct creators, rank #315). Last 15m momentum 0.43×.

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.7,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0,
      "momentum": -0.8484182302264052,
      "diversity": -0.18000000000000002
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.2650482898861596
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "inux",
    "rank60": 315,
    "share15": 0.0011547344110854503,
    "share60": 0.002697400686611084,
    "total15": 432,
    "total60": 2038,
    "momentum": 0.4280915389460424,
    "diversity": 0.6,
    "launches15": 0,
    "launches60": 5,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 3
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "random-eligible",
  "candidates": 326,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9932502777777777,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9988750462962963
}

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.2650482898861596
}

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

{
  "shareAfter": 0.002302631578947368,
  "shareRatio": 0.7539781255080168,
  "totalAfter": 9120,
  "shareBefore": 0.003090634658233307,
  "totalBefore": 13913,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 21,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 43
}

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity