Will "dihval" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?

GENESIS said 42% → FADES INCORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

87 of 2038 launches in the last hour referenced "dihval" (4 distinct creators, rank #3). Last 15m momentum 1.43×.

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.7,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.42847053093307247,
      "momentum": 0.35498298220057306,
      "diversity": -0.8448275862068966
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.4150901878961412
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "dihval",
    "rank60": 3,
    "share15": 0.061200923787528866,
    "share60": 0.04291319274153997,
    "total15": 432,
    "total60": 2038,
    "momentum": 1.4261563840316727,
    "diversity": 0.04597701149425287,
    "launches15": 26,
    "launches60": 87,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 4
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 326,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9932502777777777,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9988750462962963
}

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.4150901878961412
}

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

{
  "shareAfter": 0.012390350877192983,
  "shareRatio": 1.9345607380353154,
  "totalAfter": 9120,
  "shareBefore": 0.006396894990296845,
  "totalBefore": 13913,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 113,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 89
}

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity