Ledger / Prediction #1201 · narrative · 24H

Will "scud" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?

GENESIS said 50% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

32 of 2087 launches in the last hour referenced "scud" (9 distinct creators, rank #13). Last 15m momentum 2.37×.

Made2026-10-11 01:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-12 01:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-11 00:59 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.5,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.27844469855484394,
      "momentum": 0.8625876084499623,
      "diversity": -0.5625
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.49731656413999287
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "scud",
    "rank60": 13,
    "share15": 0.03687821612349914,
    "share60": 0.015565134099616858,
    "total15": 582,
    "total60": 2087,
    "momentum": 2.369283546642037,
    "diversity": 0.28125,
    "launches15": 21,
    "launches60": 32,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 9
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 329,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9965930555555556,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9998580439814815
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.49731656413999287
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-12 01:03 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.247

Log loss0.688

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.00007144728381242706,
  "shareRatio": 0.11386748689325762,
  "totalAfter": 41989,
  "shareBefore": 0.0007217238890607279,
  "totalBefore": 48495,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 3,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 35
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 50% that "scud" would gain share over 24H. Its share of launches moved 0.07% → 0.01% (-90%). CORRECT.

— diversity pointed the right way on "scud" (24H). diversity contributed -0.56 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash44943fe4369321bf1322130d5aca449e5410802019d2b8e6aa37924ab424e040

Previous hash62576e64e2028bde277cc8ad0c050ff302ca51140bba6d541d23656421236447