Will "live" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?

GENESIS said 44% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

35 of 2087 launches in the last hour referenced "live" (22 distinct creators, rank #12). Last 15m momentum 0.96×.

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.7,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.291886522358297,
      "momentum": -0.04246613522283808,
      "diversity": -0.1457142857142857
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.4433923056173748
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "live",
    "rank60": 12,
    "share15": 0.016295025728987993,
    "share60": 0.017001915708812262,
    "total15": 582,
    "total60": 2087,
    "momentum": 0.9584229217500543,
    "diversity": 0.6285714285714286,
    "launches15": 9,
    "launches60": 35,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 22
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 329,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9965930555555556,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9994321759259259
}

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.4433923056173748
}

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

{
  "shareAfter": 0.008836367507718514,
  "shareRatio": 0.8672655045955555,
  "totalAfter": 9393,
  "shareBefore": 0.010214790456866997,
  "totalBefore": 14293,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 83,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 146
}

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity