GENESISv0.1.0
development instance · real Pump.fun observations · no token · no real rewards
Ledger / Prediction #1197 · narrative · 6H

Will "money" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?

GENESIS said 37% → FADES PARTIAL

What GENESIS knew, before

73 of 2087 launches in the last hour referenced "money" (5 distinct creators, rank #3). Last 15m momentum 1.10×.

Made2026-10-11 01:00 UTC
Resolves2026-10-11 07:00 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-11 00:59 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.7,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.40215322930714364,
      "momentum": 0.09200466564362043,
      "diversity": -0.8178082191780821
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.37132068438461197
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "money",
    "rank60": 3,
    "share15": 0.038593481989708404,
    "share60": 0.035201149425287355,
    "total15": 582,
    "total60": 2087,
    "momentum": 1.0963699373402878,
    "diversity": 0.0684931506849315,
    "launches15": 22,
    "launches60": 73,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 5
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 329,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9965930555555556,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9994321759259259
}
Expected
{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.37132068438461197
}
Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-11 07:04 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeFADED
ClassificationPARTIAL
Brier0.138
Log loss0.464
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
  "shareAfter": 0.033748536143936976,
  "shareRatio": 0.9281672013754974,
  "totalAfter": 9393,
  "shareBefore": 0.036381445462813966,
  "totalBefore": 14293,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 317,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 520
}
Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 37% that "money" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 3.64% → 3.37% (-7%). PARTIAL.

— "money" stayed roughly flat over 6H. Share changed by less than 10%; direction calls this close carry little information.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hashc03fafdd12cff08c2ba4276c0f1c2a45b54d3c3843baafd2940c27c8c05b361f
Previous hashacf953c93e76addbf0cb7b898a1bb284e1dfc22a7c53e033b14574349f2a1053