GENESISv0.1.0
development instance · real Pump.fun observations · no token · no real rewards
Ledger / Prediction #1194 · narrative · 1H

Will "inu" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 53% → ACCELERATES INCORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

70 of 2087 launches in the last hour referenced "inu" (30 distinct creators, rank #4). Last 15m momentum 1.50×.

Made2026-10-11 01:00 UTC
Resolves2026-10-11 02:00 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-11 00:59 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.39585859944228874,
      "momentum": 0.4045523161795881,
      "diversity": -0.38571428571428573
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.5286427639730006
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "inu",
    "rank60": 4,
    "share15": 0.05060034305317324,
    "share60": 0.033764367816091954,
    "total15": 582,
    "total60": 2087,
    "momentum": 1.4986314368088756,
    "diversity": 0.42857142857142855,
    "launches15": 29,
    "launches60": 70,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 30
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 329,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9965930555555556,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9965930555555556
}
Expected
{
  "direction": "up",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.5286427639730006
}
Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-11 02:04 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeFADED
ClassificationINCORRECT
Brier0.279
Log loss0.752
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
  "shareAfter": 0.023293607800650054,
  "shareRatio": 0.6894226509819362,
  "totalAfter": 1846,
  "shareBefore": 0.033938814531548754,
  "totalBefore": 2092,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 43,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 71
}
Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 53% that "inu" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 3.39% → 2.33% (-31%). INCORRECT.

— momentum misled on "inu" (1H). momentum contributed +0.40 to the log-odds toward yes; reality was no.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash8d7ae26789ef6e46030d713b83ca04485a3ad312497d7d47e3e4427bfc1238f6
Previous hasha4244e4dfaa055ceff066d4083f17acb8828f0115e35937e33c46e868ac71473