Ledger / Prediction #1194 · narrative · 1H
Will "inu" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?
GENESIS said 53% → ACCELERATES INCORRECT
What GENESIS knew, before
70 of 2087 launches in the last hour referenced "inu" (30 distinct creators, rank #4). Last 15m momentum 1.50×.
Made2026-10-11 01:00 UTC
Resolves2026-10-11 02:00 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-11 00:59 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
"model": {
"bias": -0.3,
"version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
"horizonScale": 1,
"contributions": {
"volume": 0.39585859944228874,
"momentum": 0.4045523161795881,
"diversity": -0.38571428571428573
},
"rawProbability": 0.5286427639730006
},
"features": {
"term": "inu",
"rank60": 4,
"share15": 0.05060034305317324,
"share60": 0.033764367816091954,
"total15": 582,
"total60": 2087,
"momentum": 1.4986314368088756,
"diversity": 0.42857142857142855,
"launches15": 29,
"launches60": 70,
"contextMinutes": 60,
"uniqueCreators60": 30
},
"extractor": "terms-v2",
"selection": "top-volume",
"candidates": 329,
"calibration": null,
"methodology": "attention-v1",
"termHistory": null,
"contextCoverage": 0.9965930555555556,
"memoriesRecalled": 0,
"priorWindowCoverage": 0.9965930555555556
}Expected
{
"direction": "up",
"magnitude": null,
"magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
"probabilityUp": 0.5286427639730006
}Engine narrative-heuristic-v0
P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.
What happened, after
Graded2026-10-11 02:04 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeFADED
ClassificationINCORRECT
Brier0.279
Log loss0.752
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
"shareAfter": 0.023293607800650054,
"shareRatio": 0.6894226509819362,
"totalAfter": 1846,
"shareBefore": 0.033938814531548754,
"totalBefore": 2092,
"coverageAfter": 1,
"launchesAfter": 43,
"coverageBefore": 1,
"launchesBefore": 71
}Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1
Predicted 53% that "inu" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 3.39% → 2.33% (-31%). INCORRECT.
— momentum misled on "inu" (1H). momentum contributed +0.40 to the log-odds toward yes; reality was no.
1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).
Integrity
Hash
8d7ae26789ef6e46030d713b83ca04485a3ad312497d7d47e3e4427bfc1238f6Previous hash
a4244e4dfaa055ceff066d4083f17acb8828f0115e35937e33c46e868ac71473