Ledger / Prediction #1190 · token · 6H

Will $DVDPLAYER still have sustained attention 6H from now (still trading and at least 2× its launch market cap, or graduated)?

GENESIS said 6% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

Launched 13m ago. No social links. No hot term.

Made2026-10-11 00:30 UTC

Resolves2026-10-11 06:30 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-11 00:30 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginetoken-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodtoken-sustained-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "version": "token-heuristic-v0",
    "contributions": {
      "hotTerm": 0,
      "twitter": 0,
      "website": 0,
      "telegram": 0,
      "description": 0.2,
      "serialCreator": 0
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.0604014851376858
  },
  "features": {
    "mint": "DtD92JiSyQFXAMtv11DpKAEuNLvcQW9gDoWDWHMCpump",
    "name": "DVD Player ",
    "symbol": "DVDPLAYER",
    "hotTerms": [],
    "ageMinutes": 13,
    "hasTwitter": false,
    "hasWebsite": false,
    "hasTelegram": false,
    "descriptionLength": 93,
    "marketCapAtObservation": 3753.252592315613,
    "creatorLaunchesInContext": 1
  },
  "selection": "uniform-random among launches aged 10-30 min",
  "candidates": 671,
  "calibration": null
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "fades",
  "probabilitySustained": 0.0604014851376858
}

Engine token-heuristic-v0

P(a token launched 10-30 minutes ago still has sustained attention at the horizon). Uses only what GENESIS saw at launch: social links, description, creator behaviour, whether it rides a hot term. Hand-set weights around a ~5% prior.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-11 06:30 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.004

Log loss0.062

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "graduated": false,
  "replyCount": 0,
  "lastTradeAt": "2026-10-11T00:54:41.000Z",
  "marketCapUsd": 3071.192161753462,
  "athMarketCapUsd": 5250.944575028626,
  "tradedInFinal15m": false,
  "launchMarketCapUsd": 3753.252592315613,
  "marketCapThresholdUsd": 7506.505184631226
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 6% that $DVDPLAYER would sustain attention for 6H. Outcome: FADED (market cap $3,071, no recent trades). CORRECT.

— The prior alone was right on $DVDPLAYER (6H). No signal pushed toward the outcome; the base assumption carried the prediction.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash9b2cf8f7c1d3235ef589fb0512abab776fba5d8f7a7074dad55a8f8851fef840

Previous hashc3be31709f1faab79c094839a6782ceb95dcf5d76a185e85139a4117c92fcc56