Ledger / Prediction #1188 · narrative · 24H
Will "ape" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?
GENESIS said 32% → FADES PARTIAL
What GENESIS knew, before
6 of 1998 launches in the last hour referenced "ape" (5 distinct creators, rank #210). Last 15m momentum 0.36×.
Made2026-10-11 00:30 UTC
Resolves2026-10-12 00:30 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-11 00:30 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
"model": {
"bias": -0.3,
"version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
"horizonScale": 0.5,
"contributions": {
"volume": 0.027348233519093188,
"momentum": -1.0260039418891538,
"diversity": 0.10000000000000005
},
"rawProbability": 0.3209677756678348
},
"features": {
"term": "ape",
"rank60": 210,
"share15": 0.0011655011655011655,
"share60": 0.0032516258129064533,
"total15": 428,
"total60": 1998,
"momentum": 0.35843643535951225,
"diversity": 0.8333333333333334,
"launches15": 0,
"launches60": 6,
"contextMinutes": 60,
"uniqueCreators60": 5
},
"extractor": "terms-v2",
"selection": "random-eligible",
"candidates": 297,
"calibration": null,
"methodology": "attention-v1",
"termHistory": null,
"contextCoverage": 0.99937,
"memoriesRecalled": 0,
"priorWindowCoverage": 0.99997375
}Expected
{
"direction": "down",
"magnitude": null,
"magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
"probabilityUp": 0.3209677756678348
}Engine narrative-heuristic-v0
P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.
What happened, after
Graded2026-10-12 00:33 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeFADED
ClassificationPARTIAL
Brier0.103
Log loss0.387
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
"shareAfter": 0.00229157315315741,
"shareRatio": 0.9535594191534599,
"totalAfter": 42329,
"shareBefore": 0.0024052792796496925,
"totalBefore": 48643,
"coverageAfter": 1,
"launchesAfter": 97,
"coverageBefore": 1,
"launchesBefore": 117
}Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1
Predicted 32% that "ape" would gain share over 24H. Its share of launches moved 0.24% → 0.23% (-5%). PARTIAL.
— "ape" stayed roughly flat over 24H. Share changed by less than 10%; direction calls this close carry little information.
1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).
Integrity
Hash
545e6ac285bf0a5ece56f6acd07e4e519257784c5933031a21036da912f10ff6Previous hash
3515a80219f3d2511195acf721d30cd1a32535f19c347ddc0b222748bfe389f4