Will "500k" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?

GENESIS said 20% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

20 of 1998 launches in the last hour referenced "500k" (11 distinct creators, rank #19). Last 15m momentum 0.11×.

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.5,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.2079441541679836,
      "momentum": -2.1746266511319248,
      "diversity": -0.23999999999999994
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.19728644105438914
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "500k",
    "rank60": 19,
    "share15": 0.0011655011655011655,
    "share60": 0.01025512756378189,
    "total15": 428,
    "total60": 1998,
    "momentum": 0.11365057706521121,
    "diversity": 0.55,
    "launches15": 0,
    "launches60": 20,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 11
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 297,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.99937,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.99997375
}

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.19728644105438914
}

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

{
  "shareAfter": 0.000330742516950554,
  "shareRatio": 0.44434238916450114,
  "totalAfter": 42329,
  "shareBefore": 0.0007606438747610139,
  "totalBefore": 48643,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 14,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 37
}

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity