Ledger / Prediction #1183 · narrative · 6H
Will "squeeze" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?
GENESIS said 51% → ACCELERATES INCORRECT
What GENESIS knew, before
24 of 1998 launches in the last hour referenced "squeeze" (19 distinct creators, rank #17). Last 15m momentum 1.24×.
Made2026-10-11 00:30 UTC
Resolves2026-10-11 06:30 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-11 00:30 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
"model": {
"bias": -0.3,
"version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
"horizonScale": 0.7,
"contributions": {
"volume": 0.23529238768707678,
"momentum": 0.21207447492329332,
"diversity": 0.049999999999999954
},
"rawProbability": 0.5120368748426635
},
"features": {
"term": "squeeze",
"rank60": 17,
"share15": 0.015151515151515152,
"share60": 0.012256128064032016,
"total15": 428,
"total60": 1998,
"momentum": 1.236239950525665,
"diversity": 0.7916666666666666,
"launches15": 6,
"launches60": 24,
"contextMinutes": 60,
"uniqueCreators60": 19
},
"extractor": "terms-v2",
"selection": "top-volume",
"candidates": 297,
"calibration": null,
"methodology": "attention-v1",
"termHistory": null,
"contextCoverage": 0.99937,
"memoriesRecalled": 0,
"priorWindowCoverage": 0.999895
}Expected
{
"direction": "up",
"magnitude": null,
"magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
"probabilityUp": 0.5120368748426635
}Engine narrative-heuristic-v0
P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.
What happened, after
Graded2026-10-11 06:33 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeFADED
ClassificationINCORRECT
Brier0.262
Log loss0.717
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
"shareAfter": 0.002631845328474542,
"shareRatio": 0.8152716812273599,
"totalAfter": 9879,
"shareBefore": 0.0032555240008311976,
"totalBefore": 14437,
"coverageAfter": 1,
"launchesAfter": 26,
"coverageBefore": 1,
"launchesBefore": 47
}Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1
Predicted 51% that "squeeze" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 0.33% → 0.26% (-19%). INCORRECT.
— volume misled on "squeeze" (6H). volume contributed +0.24 to the log-odds toward yes; reality was no.
1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).
Integrity
Hash
ecd91fc2a95b43aedcba260e4068412036c984b594529c9781b143507e779494Previous hash
461a8f0556342123521ea2168db852ffd46bd6ae266fad1151e888a2c729e9d3