GENESISv0.1.0
development instance · real Pump.fun observations · no token · no real rewards
Ledger / Prediction #1183 · narrative · 6H

Will "squeeze" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?

GENESIS said 51% → ACCELERATES INCORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

24 of 1998 launches in the last hour referenced "squeeze" (19 distinct creators, rank #17). Last 15m momentum 1.24×.

Made2026-10-11 00:30 UTC
Resolves2026-10-11 06:30 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-11 00:30 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.7,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.23529238768707678,
      "momentum": 0.21207447492329332,
      "diversity": 0.049999999999999954
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.5120368748426635
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "squeeze",
    "rank60": 17,
    "share15": 0.015151515151515152,
    "share60": 0.012256128064032016,
    "total15": 428,
    "total60": 1998,
    "momentum": 1.236239950525665,
    "diversity": 0.7916666666666666,
    "launches15": 6,
    "launches60": 24,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 19
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 297,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.99937,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.999895
}
Expected
{
  "direction": "up",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.5120368748426635
}
Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-11 06:33 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeFADED
ClassificationINCORRECT
Brier0.262
Log loss0.717
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
  "shareAfter": 0.002631845328474542,
  "shareRatio": 0.8152716812273599,
  "totalAfter": 9879,
  "shareBefore": 0.0032555240008311976,
  "totalBefore": 14437,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 26,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 47
}
Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 51% that "squeeze" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 0.33% → 0.26% (-19%). INCORRECT.

— volume misled on "squeeze" (6H). volume contributed +0.24 to the log-odds toward yes; reality was no.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hashecd91fc2a95b43aedcba260e4068412036c984b594529c9781b143507e779494
Previous hash461a8f0556342123521ea2168db852ffd46bd6ae266fad1151e888a2c729e9d3