Will "chain" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 69% → ACCELERATES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

35 of 1998 launches in the last hour referenced "chain" (35 distinct creators, rank #9). Last 15m momentum 1.64×.

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.291886522358297,
      "momentum": 0.4951413633992684,
      "diversity": 0.3
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.6871928040306189
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "chain",
    "rank60": 9,
    "share15": 0.029137529137529136,
    "share60": 0.01775887943971986,
    "total15": 428,
    "total60": 1998,
    "momentum": 1.6407301618569223,
    "diversity": 1,
    "launches15": 12,
    "launches60": 35,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 35
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 297,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.99937,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.99937
}

{
  "direction": "up",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.6871928040306189
}

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

{
  "shareAfter": 0.024366471734892786,
  "shareRatio": 1.385811214094112,
  "totalAfter": 2052,
  "shareBefore": 0.017508754377188594,
  "totalBefore": 1999,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 50,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 35
}

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity