Ledger / Prediction #1174 · token · 6H

Will $SPELLCAST still have sustained attention 6H from now (still trading and at least 2× its launch market cap, or graduated)?

GENESIS said 3% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

Launched 16m ago. website. No hot term. Creator launched 52 tokens in the last hour.

Made2026-10-11 00:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-11 06:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-10 23:59 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginetoken-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodtoken-sustained-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "version": "token-heuristic-v0",
    "contributions": {
      "hotTerm": 0,
      "twitter": 0,
      "website": 0.3,
      "telegram": 0,
      "description": 0,
      "serialCreator": -0.8
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.030935134330467174
  },
  "features": {
    "mint": "7ovUSNUaWdoBru12qkppqXHPuQ9qLredkgfTvuFcUMg1",
    "name": "Spell Cast",
    "symbol": "SPELLCAST",
    "hotTerms": [],
    "ageMinutes": 16,
    "hasTwitter": false,
    "hasWebsite": true,
    "hasTelegram": false,
    "descriptionLength": 10,
    "marketCapAtObservation": 3078.487870448032,
    "creatorLaunchesInContext": 52
  },
  "selection": "uniform-random among launches aged 10-30 min",
  "candidates": 677,
  "calibration": null
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "fades",
  "probabilitySustained": 0.030935134330467174
}

Engine token-heuristic-v0

P(a token launched 10-30 minutes ago still has sustained attention at the horizon). Uses only what GENESIS saw at launch: social links, description, creator behaviour, whether it rides a hot term. Hand-set weights around a ~5% prior.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-11 06:00 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.001

Log loss0.031

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "graduated": false,
  "replyCount": 0,
  "lastTradeAt": "2026-10-11T00:13:10.000Z",
  "marketCapUsd": 3084.1618408434047,
  "athMarketCapUsd": 3085.772501966941,
  "tradedInFinal15m": false,
  "launchMarketCapUsd": 3078.487870448032,
  "marketCapThresholdUsd": 6156.975740896064
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 3% that $SPELLCAST would sustain attention for 6H. Outcome: FADED (market cap $3,084, no recent trades). CORRECT.

— serialCreator pointed the right way on $SPELLCAST (6H). serialCreator contributed -0.80 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash9435a36526236f61ee4ef3a926ba59652e01152ca341d919375a7b920b24004e

Previous hash55f7538e8c25943ef12374d197d29c6214683f1d402aef7e7abf42f2f34cfb62