GENESISv0.1.0
development instance · real Pump.fun observations · no token · no real rewards
Ledger / Prediction #1171 · narrative · 24H

Will "dicktits" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?

GENESIS said 19% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

28 of 2183 launches in the last hour referenced "dicktits" (20 distinct creators, rank #19). Last 15m momentum 0.08×.

Made2026-10-11 00:00 UTC
Resolves2026-10-12 00:00 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-10 23:59 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.5,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.2584149896611655,
      "momentum": -2.568746029391946,
      "diversity": -0.04285714285714284
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.18594241294830047
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "dicktits",
    "rank60": 19,
    "share15": 0.001,
    "share60": 0.01304945054945055,
    "total15": 499,
    "total60": 2183,
    "momentum": 0.07663157894736843,
    "diversity": 0.7142857142857143,
    "launches15": 0,
    "launches60": 28,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 20
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 334,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9940997222222222,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9997541550925926
}
Expected
{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.18594241294830047
}
Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-12 00:04 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeFADED
ClassificationCORRECT
Brier0.035
Log loss0.206
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
  "shareAfter": 0.00014135274577708673,
  "shareRatio": 0.26234410234028344,
  "totalAfter": 42447,
  "shareBefore": 0.0005734649571949371,
  "totalBefore": 48826,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 6,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 28
}
Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 19% that "dicktits" would gain share over 24H. Its share of launches moved 0.06% → 0.01% (-75%). CORRECT.

— momentum pointed the right way on "dicktits" (24H). momentum contributed -2.57 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash098af387da1afb3d41f992771fd1e1551e78f4cf9daab2ff1c229477845169b7
Previous hash92dd90a303fb206ba142728adca2fa70f92286227404fdf519411da280433093