Will "dicktits" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?
GENESIS said 19% → FADES CORRECT
What GENESIS knew, before
28 of 2183 launches in the last hour referenced "dicktits" (20 distinct creators, rank #19). Last 15m momentum 0.08×.
{
"model": {
"bias": -0.3,
"version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
"horizonScale": 0.5,
"contributions": {
"volume": 0.2584149896611655,
"momentum": -2.568746029391946,
"diversity": -0.04285714285714284
},
"rawProbability": 0.18594241294830047
},
"features": {
"term": "dicktits",
"rank60": 19,
"share15": 0.001,
"share60": 0.01304945054945055,
"total15": 499,
"total60": 2183,
"momentum": 0.07663157894736843,
"diversity": 0.7142857142857143,
"launches15": 0,
"launches60": 28,
"contextMinutes": 60,
"uniqueCreators60": 20
},
"extractor": "terms-v2",
"selection": "top-volume",
"candidates": 334,
"calibration": null,
"methodology": "attention-v1",
"termHistory": null,
"contextCoverage": 0.9940997222222222,
"memoriesRecalled": 0,
"priorWindowCoverage": 0.9997541550925926
}{
"direction": "down",
"magnitude": null,
"magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
"probabilityUp": 0.18594241294830047
}P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.
What happened, after
{
"shareAfter": 0.00014135274577708673,
"shareRatio": 0.26234410234028344,
"totalAfter": 42447,
"shareBefore": 0.0005734649571949371,
"totalBefore": 48826,
"coverageAfter": 1,
"launchesAfter": 6,
"coverageBefore": 1,
"launchesBefore": 28
}Predicted 19% that "dicktits" would gain share over 24H. Its share of launches moved 0.06% → 0.01% (-75%). CORRECT.
— momentum pointed the right way on "dicktits" (24H). momentum contributed -2.57 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.
1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).
Integrity
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