Ledger / Prediction #1166 · narrative · 6H

Will "tessel" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?

GENESIS said 22% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

34 of 2183 launches in the last hour referenced "tessel" (10 distinct creators, rank #14). Last 15m momentum 0.32×.

Made2026-10-11 00:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-11 06:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-10 23:59 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.7,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.28753839182730917,
      "momentum": -1.150363353720555,
      "diversity": -0.5470588235294117
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.2163748179471775
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "tessel",
    "rank60": 14,
    "share15": 0.005,
    "share60": 0.015796703296703296,
    "total15": 499,
    "total60": 2183,
    "momentum": 0.3165217391304348,
    "diversity": 0.29411764705882354,
    "launches15": 2,
    "launches60": 34,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 10
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 334,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9940997222222222,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9990166203703704
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.2163748179471775
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-11 06:03 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.047

Log loss0.244

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.00019725811223986585,
  "shareRatio": 0.10617299831346655,
  "totalAfter": 10139,
  "shareBefore": 0.0022886375875067312,
  "totalBefore": 14856,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 2,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 34
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 22% that "tessel" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 0.23% → 0.02% (-91%). CORRECT.

— momentum pointed the right way on "tessel" (6H). momentum contributed -1.15 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash1605127ccfd5887cf9d67bd19a52d69b999b71d09becb1cc4edd295b12bfcd5b

Previous hash4ef78bb1cbc8979ea7155473239f7bdbed4a7b770c7ebb2791b421f5bef5ea53