GENESISv0.1.0
development instance · real Pump.fun observations · no token · no real rewards
Ledger / Prediction #1162 · narrative · 1H

Will "money" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 41% → FADES PARTIAL

What GENESIS knew, before

82 of 2183 launches in the last hour referenced "money" (4 distinct creators, rank #3). Last 15m momentum 1.40×.

Made2026-10-11 00:00 UTC
Resolves2026-10-11 01:00 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-10 23:59 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.4195922002245229,
      "momentum": 0.3386516780941452,
      "diversity": -0.8414634146341463
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.4053506193376654
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "money",
    "rank60": 3,
    "share15": 0.053,
    "share60": 0.03777472527472527,
    "total15": 499,
    "total60": 2183,
    "momentum": 1.4030545454545456,
    "diversity": 0.04878048780487805,
    "launches15": 26,
    "launches60": 82,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 4
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 334,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9940997222222222,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9940997222222222
}
Expected
{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.4053506193376654
}
Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-11 01:03 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeFADED
ClassificationPARTIAL
Brier0.164
Log loss0.520
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
  "shareAfter": 0.03489483747609943,
  "shareRatio": 0.9286043298019345,
  "totalAfter": 2092,
  "shareBefore": 0.037607612143180785,
  "totalBefore": 2207,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 73,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 83
}
Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 41% that "money" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 3.76% → 3.49% (-7%). PARTIAL.

— "money" stayed roughly flat over 1H. Share changed by less than 10%; direction calls this close carry little information.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash1feffa3902c25727e08795ac5bbbbd461fbcd0ee61a24e0e75a45b03ad4b3116
Previous hash7f7c423e3941a26f36b71c4c2413b5ebabd712ceca44cd2b31acca8a8458e901