Will "intelligence" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?
GENESIS said 41% → FADES CORRECT
What GENESIS knew, before
95 of 2183 launches in the last hour referenced "intelligence" (49 distinct creators, rank #2). Last 15m momentum 0.80×.
{
"model": {
"bias": -0.3,
"version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
"horizonScale": 1,
"contributions": {
"volume": 0.441665846874966,
"momentum": -0.22262012811461213,
"diversity": -0.2810526315789473
},
"rawProbability": 0.410473835901917
},
"features": {
"term": "intelligence",
"rank60": 2,
"share15": 0.035,
"share60": 0.043727106227106224,
"total15": 499,
"total60": 2183,
"momentum": 0.8004188481675394,
"diversity": 0.5157894736842106,
"launches15": 17,
"launches60": 95,
"contextMinutes": 60,
"uniqueCreators60": 49
},
"extractor": "terms-v2",
"selection": "top-volume",
"candidates": 334,
"calibration": null,
"methodology": "attention-v1",
"termHistory": null,
"contextCoverage": 0.9940997222222222,
"memoriesRecalled": 0,
"priorWindowCoverage": 0.9940997222222222
}{
"direction": "down",
"magnitude": null,
"magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
"probabilityUp": 0.410473835901917
}P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.
What happened, after
{
"shareAfter": 0.0248565965583174,
"shareRatio": 0.5799436165928313,
"totalAfter": 2092,
"shareBefore": 0.043044857272315364,
"totalBefore": 2207,
"coverageAfter": 1,
"launchesAfter": 52,
"coverageBefore": 1,
"launchesBefore": 95
}Predicted 41% that "intelligence" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 4.30% → 2.49% (-42%). CORRECT.
— diversity pointed the right way on "intelligence" (1H). diversity contributed -0.28 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.
1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).
Integrity
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