Ledger / Prediction #1153 · narrative · 24H
Will "sent" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?
GENESIS said 25% → FADES CORRECT
What GENESIS knew, before
46 of 2403 launches in the last hour referenced "sent" (34 distinct creators, rank #11). Last 15m momentum 0.15×.
Made2026-10-10 23:30 UTC
Resolves2026-10-11 23:30 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-10 23:29 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
"model": {
"bias": -0.3,
"version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
"horizonScale": 0.5,
"contributions": {
"volume": 0.3328805226082492,
"momentum": -1.923859930071987,
"diversity": -0.013043478260869623
},
"rawProbability": 0.24936320034678666
},
"features": {
"term": "sent",
"rank60": 11,
"share15": 0.002824858757062147,
"share60": 0.019342762063227954,
"total15": 530,
"total60": 2403,
"momentum": 0.14604216025757852,
"diversity": 0.7391304347826086,
"launches15": 1,
"launches60": 46,
"contextMinutes": 60,
"uniqueCreators60": 34
},
"extractor": "terms-v2",
"selection": "top-volume",
"candidates": 428,
"calibration": null,
"methodology": "attention-v1",
"termHistory": null,
"contextCoverage": 0.9974291666666667,
"memoriesRecalled": 0,
"priorWindowCoverage": 0.9998928819444445
}Expected
{
"direction": "down",
"magnitude": null,
"magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
"probabilityUp": 0.24936320034678666
}Engine narrative-heuristic-v0
P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.
What happened, after
Graded2026-10-11 23:33 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeFADED
ClassificationCORRECT
Brier0.062
Log loss0.287
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
"shareAfter": 0.0026280592251918247,
"shareRatio": 0.8998810925942369,
"totalAfter": 42617,
"shareBefore": 0.002923259331943252,
"totalBefore": 48918,
"coverageAfter": 1,
"launchesAfter": 112,
"coverageBefore": 1,
"launchesBefore": 143
}Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1
Predicted 25% that "sent" would gain share over 24H. Its share of launches moved 0.29% → 0.26% (-10%). CORRECT.
— momentum pointed the right way on "sent" (24H). momentum contributed -1.92 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.
1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).
Integrity
Hash
1775de41b6d693917b65127efe3e85e3a876a0270c7d1c31ed5662354e713a72Previous hash
b17a11db9802325471f1af6d08519b6114d41a629f572ad3634dd9953af05d23