Ledger / Prediction #1148 · narrative · 1H

Will "stenks" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 18% → FADES INCORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

7 of 2403 launches in the last hour referenced "stenks" (5 distinct creators, rank #271). Last 15m momentum 0.30×.

Made2026-10-10 23:30 UTC

Resolves2026-10-11 00:30 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-10 23:29 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.050470835493181924,
      "momentum": -1.1979229266890505,
      "diversity": -0.04285714285714284
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.1838753176175817
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "stenks",
    "rank60": 271,
    "share15": 0.0009416195856873823,
    "share60": 0.003119800332778702,
    "total15": 530,
    "total60": 2403,
    "momentum": 0.30182046453232897,
    "diversity": 0.7142857142857143,
    "launches15": 0,
    "launches60": 7,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 5
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "random-eligible",
  "candidates": 428,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9974291666666667,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9974291666666667
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.1838753176175817
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-11 00:33 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeACCELERATED

ClassificationINCORRECT

Brier0.666

Log loss1.693

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.00400200100050025,
  "shareRatio": 1.3668,
  "totalAfter": 1999,
  "shareBefore": 0.002903359601824969,
  "totalBefore": 2411,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 8,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 7
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 18% that "stenks" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 0.29% → 0.40% (+38%). INCORRECT.

— momentum misled on "stenks" (1H). momentum contributed -1.20 to the log-odds toward no; reality was yes.

— Overconfident: 82% and wrong on "stenks". Confidence this high should be wrong about 1 time in 4 or less; track this bucket.

2 memory records written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hashc8879e935e2e81d9617004696d52f86eb3bdccf29339aee70ba40a63c7add672

Previous hashfcb27c7b39fd3d6d0abaa86e9ed82860c375b7a61bbd1b00c465c0505c4760a2