Ledger / Prediction #1144 · token · 6H

Will $STUTUTU still have sustained attention 6H from now (still trading and at least 2× its launch market cap, or graduated)?

GENESIS said 3% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

Launched 29m ago. No social links. Rides hot term "money". Creator launched 64 tokens in the last hour.

Made2026-10-10 23:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-11 05:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-10 22:59 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginetoken-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodtoken-sustained-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "version": "token-heuristic-v0",
    "contributions": {
      "hotTerm": 0.3,
      "twitter": 0,
      "website": 0,
      "telegram": 0,
      "description": 0,
      "serialCreator": -0.8
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.030935134330467174
  },
  "features": {
    "mint": "7q94mty4Ddco5ZqjB5WjYpkLfAFf4mhvyVucNFywpump",
    "name": "IS THAT A SUPRA",
    "symbol": "STUTUTU",
    "hotTerms": [
      "money"
    ],
    "ageMinutes": 29,
    "hasTwitter": false,
    "hasWebsite": false,
    "hasTelegram": false,
    "descriptionLength": 18,
    "marketCapAtObservation": 3882.6367727542997,
    "creatorLaunchesInContext": 64
  },
  "selection": "uniform-random among launches aged 10-30 min",
  "candidates": 810,
  "calibration": null
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "fades",
  "probabilitySustained": 0.030935134330467174
}

Engine token-heuristic-v0

P(a token launched 10-30 minutes ago still has sustained attention at the horizon). Uses only what GENESIS saw at launch: social links, description, creator behaviour, whether it rides a hot term. Hand-set weights around a ~5% prior.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-11 05:00 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.001

Log loss0.031

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "graduated": false,
  "replyCount": 0,
  "lastTradeAt": "2026-10-10T22:32:16.000Z",
  "marketCapUsd": 594.3315930675324,
  "athMarketCapUsd": 5706.272856266328,
  "tradedInFinal15m": false,
  "launchMarketCapUsd": 3882.6367727542997,
  "marketCapThresholdUsd": 7765.273545508599
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 3% that $STUTUTU would sustain attention for 6H. Outcome: FADED (market cap $594, no recent trades). CORRECT.

— serialCreator pointed the right way on $STUTUTU (6H). serialCreator contributed -0.80 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash99a892cc6428dd2aff18190910f2a4a24314b08c66d1b025040979602b1e06b0

Previous hash8c743473961944d119408d623710b29fd13149fa4497ecdedd6c7c0ad48f52e2