Will "switched" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?

GENESIS said 13% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

46 of 2395 launches in the last hour referenced "switched" (22 distinct creators, rank #12). Last 15m momentum 0.04×.

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.5,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.3328805226082492,
      "momentum": -3.1645024910852726,
      "diversity": -0.3260869565217391
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.13252050775725138
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "switched",
    "rank60": 12,
    "share15": 0.000819672131147541,
    "share60": 0.019407345575959932,
    "total15": 609,
    "total60": 2395,
    "momentum": 0.042235148951172224,
    "diversity": 0.4782608695652174,
    "launches15": 0,
    "launches60": 46,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 22
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 426,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9924222222222222,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9996842592592593
}

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.13252050775725138
}

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

{
  "shareAfter": 0.00004679785665816506,
  "shareRatio": 0.036396404935657434,
  "totalAfter": 42737,
  "shareBefore": 0.001596986200401294,
  "totalBefore": 48842,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 2,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 78
}

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity