Ledger / Prediction #1136 · narrative · 6H

Will "actually" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?

GENESIS said 49% → FADES PARTIAL

What GENESIS knew, before

5 of 2395 launches in the last hour referenced "actually" (5 distinct creators, rank #361). Last 15m momentum 1.07×.

Made2026-10-10 23:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-11 05:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-10 22:59 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.7,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0,
      "momentum": 0.06881401793772234,
      "diversity": 0.3
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.4895439777260941
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "actually",
    "rank60": 361,
    "share15": 0.002459016393442623,
    "share60": 0.002295492487479132,
    "total15": 609,
    "total60": 2395,
    "momentum": 1.07123695976155,
    "diversity": 1,
    "launches15": 1,
    "launches60": 5,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 5
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "random-eligible",
  "candidates": 426,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9924222222222222,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9987370370370371
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.4895439777260941
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-11 05:03 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationPARTIAL

Brier0.240

Log loss0.672

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.0016454886187037207,
  "shareRatio": 0.954731593817517,
  "totalAfter": 10939,
  "shareBefore": 0.0017391304347826088,
  "totalBefore": 15525,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 18,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 27
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 49% that "actually" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 0.17% → 0.16% (-5%). PARTIAL.

— "actually" stayed roughly flat over 6H. Share changed by less than 10%; direction calls this close carry little information.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash9187c166ca970ac9317ac2ad6f447e4d1e128ea11007b83c9fd451b776e14815

Previous hash2de103641177c79caab47c77fffeba65e7db8ca86a9e245de4b0d64579c24af0