Ledger / Prediction #1135 · narrative · 6H

Will "chain" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?

GENESIS said 54% → ACCELERATES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

49 of 2395 launches in the last hour referenced "chain" (41 distinct creators, rank #11). Last 15m momentum 1.23×.

Made2026-10-10 23:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-11 05:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-10 22:59 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.7,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.34235735785147897,
      "momentum": 0.20696435641853939,
      "diversity": 0.10408163265306127
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.5392645731378033
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "chain",
    "rank60": 11,
    "share15": 0.02540983606557377,
    "share60": 0.020659432387312188,
    "total15": 609,
    "total60": 2395,
    "momentum": 1.2299387315780759,
    "diversity": 0.8367346938775511,
    "launches15": 15,
    "launches60": 49,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 41
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 426,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9924222222222222,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9987370370370371
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "up",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.5392645731378033
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-11 05:03 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeACCELERATED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.212

Log loss0.617

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.01965444739007222,
  "shareRatio": 1.3097929528007548,
  "totalAfter": 10939,
  "shareBefore": 0.01500805152979066,
  "totalBefore": 15525,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 215,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 233
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 54% that "chain" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 1.50% → 1.97% (+31%). CORRECT.

— volume pointed the right way on "chain" (6H). volume contributed +0.34 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash2de103641177c79caab47c77fffeba65e7db8ca86a9e245de4b0d64579c24af0

Previous hash7d6015b82f93fd1b84f510ef5fdca60742a317b1a0f517d319b5790cc4344a41