Ledger / Prediction #1122 · narrative · 24H
Will "paired" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?
GENESIS said 60% → ACCELERATES INCORRECT
What GENESIS knew, before
32 of 2276 launches in the last hour referenced "paired" (30 distinct creators, rank #16). Last 15m momentum 2.53×.
Made2026-10-10 22:30 UTC
Resolves2026-10-11 22:30 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-10 22:29 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
"model": {
"bias": -0.3,
"version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
"horizonScale": 0.5,
"contributions": {
"volume": 0.27844469855484394,
"momentum": 0.9283427671509692,
"diversity": 0.22499999999999998
},
"rawProbability": 0.6025002398727202
},
"features": {
"term": "paired",
"rank60": 16,
"share15": 0.036115569823434994,
"share60": 0.01427316644707949,
"total15": 622,
"total60": 2276,
"momentum": 2.5303123842449686,
"diversity": 0.9375,
"launches15": 22,
"launches60": 32,
"contextMinutes": 60,
"uniqueCreators60": 30
},
"extractor": "terms-v2",
"selection": "top-volume",
"candidates": 380,
"calibration": null,
"methodology": "attention-v1",
"termHistory": null,
"contextCoverage": 0.9954852777777777,
"memoriesRecalled": 0,
"priorWindowCoverage": 0.999811886574074
}Expected
{
"direction": "up",
"magnitude": null,
"magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
"probabilityUp": 0.6025002398727202
}Engine narrative-heuristic-v0
P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.
What happened, after
Graded2026-10-11 22:33 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeFADED
ClassificationINCORRECT
Brier0.363
Log loss0.923
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
"shareAfter": 0.007520197434285582,
"shareRatio": 0.8768611323781722,
"totalAfter": 42951,
"shareBefore": 0.00857930752732101,
"totalBefore": 48955,
"coverageAfter": 1,
"launchesAfter": 323,
"coverageBefore": 1,
"launchesBefore": 420
}Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1
Predicted 60% that "paired" would gain share over 24H. Its share of launches moved 0.86% → 0.75% (-12%). INCORRECT.
— momentum misled on "paired" (24H). momentum contributed +0.93 to the log-odds toward yes; reality was no.
1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).
Integrity
Hash
605943be1b00702cbdb9628339b2c088037dcf25ca9dfb751ca53e5f7d13252fPrevious hash
92824bfa8793121f2011a8e32d23b43bb499de61a10c727b150ac0645069a1e4