GENESISv0.1.0
development instance · real Pump.fun observations · no token · no real rewards
Ledger / Prediction #1121 · narrative · 24H

Will "fox" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?

GENESIS said 60% → ACCELERATES PARTIAL

What GENESIS knew, before

33 of 2276 launches in the last hour referenced "fox" (23 distinct creators, rank #14). Last 15m momentum 3.22×.

Made2026-10-10 22:30 UTC
Resolves2026-10-11 22:30 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-10 22:29 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.5,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.28306044735485697,
      "momentum": 1.16891237179104,
      "diversity": -0.06363636363636357
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.5972857112819827
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "fox",
    "rank60": 14,
    "share15": 0.04735152487961477,
    "share60": 0.014712340799297322,
    "total15": 622,
    "total60": 2276,
    "momentum": 3.2184902134591886,
    "diversity": 0.696969696969697,
    "launches15": 29,
    "launches60": 33,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 23
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 380,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9954852777777777,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.999811886574074
}
Expected
{
  "direction": "up",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.5972857112819827
}
Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-11 22:33 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeACCELERATED
ClassificationPARTIAL
Brier0.162
Log loss0.515
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
  "shareAfter": 0.003026704849712463,
  "shareRatio": 1.0817585804026482,
  "totalAfter": 42951,
  "shareBefore": 0.0027984884077213766,
  "totalBefore": 48955,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 130,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 137
}
Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 60% that "fox" would gain share over 24H. Its share of launches moved 0.28% → 0.30% (+8%). PARTIAL.

— "fox" stayed roughly flat over 24H. Share changed by less than 10%; direction calls this close carry little information.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash92824bfa8793121f2011a8e32d23b43bb499de61a10c727b150ac0645069a1e4
Previous hash292fd9471ec2ced323fc2335b67612dd4aeb3d7c4e6ad6a7be3506934b3f4dfd