Ledger / Prediction #1119 · narrative · 6H
Will "fox" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?
GENESIS said 66% → ACCELERATES CORRECT
What GENESIS knew, before
33 of 2276 launches in the last hour referenced "fox" (23 distinct creators, rank #14). Last 15m momentum 3.22×.
Made2026-10-10 22:30 UTC
Resolves2026-10-11 04:30 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-10 22:29 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
"model": {
"bias": -0.3,
"version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
"horizonScale": 0.7,
"contributions": {
"volume": 0.28306044735485697,
"momentum": 1.16891237179104,
"diversity": -0.06363636363636357
},
"rawProbability": 0.6619140406644778
},
"features": {
"term": "fox",
"rank60": 14,
"share15": 0.04735152487961477,
"share60": 0.014712340799297322,
"total15": 622,
"total60": 2276,
"momentum": 3.2184902134591886,
"diversity": 0.696969696969697,
"launches15": 29,
"launches60": 33,
"contextMinutes": 60,
"uniqueCreators60": 23
},
"extractor": "terms-v2",
"selection": "top-volume",
"candidates": 380,
"calibration": null,
"methodology": "attention-v1",
"termHistory": null,
"contextCoverage": 0.9954852777777777,
"memoriesRecalled": 0,
"priorWindowCoverage": 0.9992475462962963
}Expected
{
"direction": "up",
"magnitude": null,
"magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
"probabilityUp": 0.6619140406644778
}Engine narrative-heuristic-v0
P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.
What happened, after
Graded2026-10-11 04:33 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeACCELERATED
ClassificationCORRECT
Brier0.114
Log loss0.413
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
"shareAfter": 0.00450840991850182,
"shareRatio": 1.1417636673115756,
"totalAfter": 11534,
"shareBefore": 0.003954106436766708,
"totalBefore": 15427,
"coverageAfter": 1,
"launchesAfter": 52,
"coverageBefore": 1,
"launchesBefore": 61
}Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1
Predicted 66% that "fox" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 0.40% → 0.45% (+14%). CORRECT.
— momentum pointed the right way on "fox" (6H). momentum contributed +1.17 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.
1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).
Integrity
Hash
593d5bda0f4d73c775e79ad8dcacf7a167b299b22e5f8e51822fcbace82966baPrevious hash
a0d3abb7bdbc3be1d5f683ffb146f9e99089692e5b5c248c5abe1f7a238a14c9